The past few weeks have witnessed a remarkable deterioration in Turkish-American relations, stemming from the 2017 Turkish purchase of two batteries of S-400 SAM systems from Russia. American fears of Turkey slowly drifting into the Russian orbit are being realized as the deal reaches its delivery stages has culminated in the removal of Turkey from the F-35 program (production of which is generously farmed out to many NATO allies). Hopes that Turkish President Erdogan would reorient towards NATO-interoperable systems like the US-made Patriot SAM with sufficient incentives have foundered on a key misunderstanding: Erdogan’s purchase of the very capable S-400 missile system is based not on a negotiating tactic to drive a better deal on the Patriot, but instead made with an eye towards possessing a palace guard capable of locking down Turkish airspace in the event of a replay of the July 15 2016 coup attempt.
The coup attempt and its aftermath revealed fundamental structural problems facing Turkish armed forces under Erdogan. The Turkish Air Force was overrepresented among participants in the coup, a pattern borne out by systematic purges of the air force after the coup. Turkish pilots’ involvement in the coup attempt have likely created a visceral and lasting distrust by Erdogan, as one plane bombed the parliamentary building in Ankara and others trailed his presidential plane after barely escaping being captured at his villa.
The drama of the night of 15-16 July has likely taught Erdogan (and former putsch members now languishing in prison) the value of immediate air superiority. With much of the air force still politically suspect, Erdogan has to turn to maintaining what can best be described as a praetorian guard: strategic SAM batteries that are capable of locking down the airspace of nearly the entirety of Turkey without NATO interference.
In my opinion, other interpretations of Erdogan’s purchase of the system leaves out this crucial element, and fundamentally misunderstands his intentions. After repeatedly nearly being killed by his own air force during the night of 15-16 July, it isn’t difficult to imagine that such a step does not smack of tinfoil hat paranoia and is instead the behavior of a budding autocrat seeking to maintain power by keeping the keys to a very capable SAM system in the nightstand of his 1000+ room presidential palace.
Le Grognard 